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Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6''' major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. AndrewTalk To Me 19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : I predict '''19 depressions, 18 '''named storms, '''11 hurricanes, and 4''' majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why?rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC) IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Isis retired Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.) rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC) :That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC) ::It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC) Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.--Isaac829 01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC) : The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. ''Ryan1000'' 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001 leeboy100My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC) July 02C.IUNE AOI:ECMWF storm near CPac Although there's nothing there right now, by this weekend, another area of low pressure is expected to form near the CPac's area of responsibility, and it's at 40% for 5 days. Dolores by next week, anyone? ''Ryan1000'' 20:35, July 1, 2015 (UTC) :this reminds me of Upana in 2000, formed in July too. totally destructive|get hyper! 22:16, July 1, 2015 (UTC) ::Upana? Didn't expect that storm to get thrown around. This is the first of another batch of storm the ECMWF develops. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC) 95E.INVEST oh my. 2 invests developed. this one is going to enter the CPac totally destructive|get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-C Here, but 12 hours overdue. CPHC did something right for a change. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:23, July 10, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Iune ...3 named storms in July alone! might a sign of an super-el niño. it's a single thunderstorm! the cpac Marco. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 22:38, July 11, 2015 (UTC) :As far as I am aware, this is the earliest third CPAC storm of a season ''by far;'' the old record was held by 1984's Tropical Storm Moke, which formed on September 4(!!!!) of that year. At this rate, 1982's record for most CPAC storms (four) won't last much longer... --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 23:24, July 11, 2015 (UTC) :::We've still got a ways to go to match or beat the all-time record of 7 storms in July of the 1985 season, but July typically sees a total of 4 storms. However, with 3 storms already before the 2nd week is over, we might get a close second to 1985. Ryan1000 12:16, July 12, 2015 (UTC) ::::Dang, this is just insane. This is the most active I have seen the CPac basin be since August 2013. Well, as of now, the storm is forecast to remain very weak, and thus be a weakling. If this year carries on like that, we could even break 1982's record! �� --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:38, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :::::This is most active the CPAC has ever been. Let me list a bunch of records. First of all, 3 CPAC storms have never been co-active. The Central Pacific Hurricane Seasons lasts from June 1 to November 30. No CPAC TC has even formed there in June nor named there. Inside the hurricane season, the earliest forming CPAc name is Ela. Second earliest is Halola and third earliest is Iune. In addition, prior to 2015, there had been only 3 CPAC named systems in July. Well, 2015 has had 3. This also marks the closest span (3 days, old record was 1, 19848) 3 CPAC storms have been named. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:49, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Iune Close to dead now.--Isaac829 23:25, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :I was waiting for the CPAC to become active again, but these past few days were just crazy. However, aside from being the earliest 3rd CPAC-named storm in an EPAC season, Iune won't do much else. Its LLCC is completely exposed, and there is only a small pocket of convection left. Winds are currently 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). As a ridge builds to the north of Iune, it should turn generally SW into a region of increasing dry air, which is already affecting the system. Despite some models like SHIPS showing steady reintensification, judging by Iune's appearance, I won't be surprised if the storm completely dissipates within the next day, faster than the 96 hours the CPHC forecast. Speaking of which, their visual forecast erroneously shows the depression regenerating into a TC at the end of the forecast period (which I wish was the case). Well, you tried, Iune. AndrewTalk To Me 02:37, July 13, 2015 (UTC) ::And as soon as I type that, the CPHC releases their new advisory on Iune. It's only getting worse. Dvorak estimates have prompted a decrease of winds to 25 knots (30 mph) with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Even with increasing SST values, dry air has basically been Iune's death sentence, and in agreement with my above hours, the CPHC acknowledges the system could be gone within several hours. Oh, well... AndrewTalk To Me 02:44, July 13, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Iune Iune degenerated a couple days ago, but its remains are still alive. They are currently around 170W, and despite increased thunderstorm activity, likely will be prevented from becoming tropical again by its surrounding environment. Chances of regeneration are currently '''10%' for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 15:44, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :Ex-Iune is closing in on the Dateline, and likely will cross it without significant development. Chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 15:09, July 17, 2015 (UTC) 04E.ELA AOI:ECMWF storm #2 ECMWF has another area forming around the same time as the above. Could not develop due to interaction though. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC) 96E.INVEST this one is behind 95E. could become a long track one totally destructive|get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC : This one looks a lot better than the one that's in the CPac right now, it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes our next major hurricane. Pretty typical in July, but it'll still be fun to watch. 'Ryan1000' 20:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC) :: isnt this the GFS storm that crosses 3 basins? ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 21:19, July 3, 2015 (UTC) :::There is no system in the CPAC. This a possible Hawaii threat as the ECMWF shows. The one behind it could be another long-tracker, a bit early for this time of year. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:35, July 3, 2015 (UTC) :::::Sorry, thought the other had moved there by now, it will soon though. But don't expect 95E to do much anyway, conditions for it are deteriorating, this one though is far more likely to become something next week. Also YE, it's not that unusual to see a major hurricane here early in July or late June, especially in a super El Nino year like this one. But they're good to track nonetheless. 'Ryan1000' 05:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Closer to MX, sure. Not usually this far our as the GFs/ECMWF has this hitting Hawaii long-term. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:33, July 4, 2015 (UTC) ::Now at 70/90, and is very likely to become Dolores over the next day or two. Fortunately, most of the reliable models take this north of Hawaii at this point. Surf will still be a threat, but a direct hit is looking less and less likely. 'Ryan1000' 00:41, July 7, 2015 (UTC) :::Models are overdoing ex-95E and thus sending this too far north. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:59, July 7, 2015 (UTC) ::Although it's not impossible it could hit Hawaii (in fact many storms over the past few years have come unusually close to the islands), it'd still be unlikely seeing as how the islands are typically more heavily protected at this time of year by a subtropical ridge to the north and shear from the south. But 96E is still something to watch regardless. Up to 90%. 'Ryan1000' 20:20, July 7, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E and yes. we have an depression, oddly being tracked by the CPHC could become Ela. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 03:56, July 8, 2015 (UTC) : It's being tracked by the CPac because the storm was upgraded by the NHC just moments before it crossed 140 W. Conditions are favorable enough for it to become Ela, but it probably won't become a hurricane since it will be passing over cooler SST's and some shear as it passes north of Hawaii over the next 4 days. 'Ryan1000' 12:35, July 8, 2015 (UTC) : uh. no comments on the organization. pulling an 2012 WPac Maliksi in the organization ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 16:21, July 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ela well it got named. hopefully will go poof as Wali last season ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 16:13, July 9, 2015 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Ela Was only upped due to recon and is gone now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:25, July 10, 2015 (UTC) : Not surprised, this wasn't too well looking from day 1. But at least it got named, better than nothing at all. 'Ryan1000' 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC) ::Well, this weakling ''did form in the CPac and thus helping make the activity in that basin literally the most in one month since August 2013. Bye, Ela! �� (BTW, I kind of want to use emojis again, and you'll see them clearly if you're viewing with your phone or have this extension for Google Chrome.) --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:33, July 12, 2015 (UTC) 01C.HALOLA 91C.INVEST 60% CPAC invest that should be a TD. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-C and yes it is. it could cross to the WPac and be an long track typhoon the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:14, July 10, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Halola If it does, it's named by CPHC.--Isaac829 03:08, July 11, 2015 (UTC) and its organizing '''very' quickly. the HWRF is showing Halola to become an typhoon, then getting ripped apart by wind shear in an earlier run. GFDL makes it a C3. i can't rule out an RI to happen. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 03:52, July 11, 2015 (UTC) : The CPHC site currently forecasts this thing to become a hurricane/typhoon, but since the forecast only takes it to 70 kts at the end of the forecast, it may not be that powerful after all. Still worth watching, though: It is currently going to be the strongest of the CPac batch. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:41, July 12, 2015 (UTC) ::50 knts. Should cross over later today, and could at least be a typhoon in the WPAC, possibly a strong one as the GFS does that outside the 5 day forecast window. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:53, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Halola Well, Halola is now the first dateline crosser since Genevieve. With responsibility now in the JMA's hands, its winds are currently are 50 knots (60 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). On the JTWC side, Halola has winds of 50 knots (1-min) as well, gusting to 65 knots (75 mph). Despite moderate shear, which should decrease as the storm moves generally NW under the STR's influence, profound ventilation should result in its continued intensification. The current JTWC peak winds are 95 knots (110 mph) (1-min) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) and 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min)/965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) per the JMA. In addition, Wake Island may have to watch out for Halola, as it is slated to pass by them as a borderline Category 1/2 storm. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, July 13, 2015 (UTC) : Pretty cool to see another dateline crosser, but Halola probably won't be too severe for Wake Island, they're pretty prepared and somehow managed to escape significant damage when Ioke passed over the Island in 2006. Let's just hope it takes the same track as Genny and remains at sea. 'Ryan1000' 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Halola Now it's a typhoon per the JMA, and forecast to be a stromg one, JTWC currently forecasts a 4. But the stronger it gets, the more likely it will remain out to sea, which is good. 'Ryan1000' 02:57, July 14, 2015 (UTC) :Well I didn't expect this one to cross basins. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party '''HARD'!]] 21:54, July 14, 2015 (UTC) ::Puffle, that was kind of expected right from the start from Halola. Anyway, Halola isn't dealing with the most ideal conditions, as moderate shear has ripped apart some of its organization. Although the typhoon was a Category 2 earlier on, its current state has prompted the JTWC to lower its winds to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA reports winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). As Halola tracks generally WNW under the STR's influence, the aforementioned shear should prevent any significant intensification, but in a few days, increasing poleward outflow is expected to provide some intensification support for the typhoon. Consequently, the JMA only expects slight intensification over the next 72 hours, and the JTWC only expects peak winds of 110 knots (125 mph) (1-min) gusting to 135 knots (155 mph). Although I would love to see a re-Oliwa from Halola (minus the Japan landfall), that is also what I rooted for Pewa, and the latter barely became a typhoon. We'll see if Halola is any different... AndrewTalk To Me 15:32, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :::Yeah Puffle, I kind of expected that from the beginning. Since I'm not really interested in typhoons anymore, I might not post much here, but we'll see what this system will do. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:52, July 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Halola (2nd time) What Halola is doing is hanging on for its dear life. Despite being located in an environment with low shear, most of the storm's convection has concentrated in its eastern quadrant. (JTWC Dvorak estimates suggest) Halola's winds are currently 35 knots (40 mph) (1 and 10-min), with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) and one-minute gusts of 45 knots (50 mph). As the STR steers the storm WNW and eventually NW, Halola should gradually intensify as shear lessens and outflow increases, with the JTWC predicting a secondary peak of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-min) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA is slightly more conservative and only brings it to 55 knots (65 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) by the end of day 3, whereas the JTWC foresees winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-min). Regardless of how strong Halola gets, I would like to point out and abnormality about its projected tracks. It is rather unusual for a CPAC TC to track as far north as Japan once it crosses the dateline. In other words, Halola may be like a scaled down version of Oliwa. AndrewTalk To Me 15:31, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :Halola continues to have a (somewhat) exposed LLCC, with most convection displaced in its eastern quadrant. Intensity estimates remain the same from both agencies. For the time being, an adjoining TUTT cell is producing some westerly shear over Halola, and this should keep it in check for another day or so. As the storm begins reorganizing, it should turn more WNW, closer to Japan. Forecast peak intensities are still the same as well from both agencies, but the JTWC is predicting Halola will reorganize a little faster. Also, on a side note, Wake Island seems to have made it out okay from the system, based on the 2015 PTS Wikipedia article. Come on, Halola! Reorganize yourself! AndrewTalk To Me 01:26, July 18, 2015 (UTC) 05E.DOLORES Aoi:GFS storm #3 the GFS develops an possible hurricane or an tropical storm by late next week. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)|get hyper! 01:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC) :GFS set on a major out of this in 2 weeks. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:41, July 4, 2015 (UTC) This one will have to wait quite some time. But it could become Enrique around the middle of the month. 'Ryan1000' 05:03, July 4, 2015 (UTC) :0/50. GFS brings it near MX, but the ECMWF does not. Both call for a majors,while the ECMWF calls for a Cat 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC) :ok. the latest GFS run (12z) makes the future Enrique an 'rare california landfall over Los Angeles as an remnant low' the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 17:41, July 9, 2015 (UTC) 98E.INVEST 70/90. Models have backed off on this, but this could still become a hurricane at least. Tracks hae once again shifted east so it could affect Baja. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:57, July 10, 2015 (UTC) : I think it's more likely to remain offshore, like Dora '11, than pull a Calvin or Eugene and make landfall in Mexico. 'Ryan1000' 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E First advisory was issued 8 hours ago but I guess we all got too caught up in Chan-hom and the CPAC explosion. Hope this is the right invest. Forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane Dolores in a few days. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:19, July 11, 2015 (UTC) : It is, though I think it'll become stronger than a cat 2 off of Mexico. Kinda reminds me of Dora '11 in track, though I don't know if Dolores to-be will get nearly as strong as she did. But I would expect at least a cat 3 here. 'Ryan1000' 01:29, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolores Now named Dolores. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:26, July 12, 2015 (UTC) : It is forecast by the NHC site to possibly become a powerful one, and I would say becoming a major isn't out of the question. If the forecast takes it to 95 kts like it currently does, then it could have a shot at becoming a major. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:44, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :This is a shoe in for a major and could reach Category 5 status. That is what the top preforming GFS and ECMWF models do with it. Throw out the HWRF since it sucks with slow moving storms since it overdoes upwelling and GFDL is off track wise and has it slamming Baja. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:57, July 12, 2015 (UTC) ::After being dead for nearly a month, the EPAC has blown up with just five TCs in barely five days. Although most of these systems have been weak, this is nevertheless very impressive to see, especially in ''July. Anyway, shear seems to be affecting Dolores like the NHC says; everything is displaced to its NE quadrant and the center is barely covered. However, ASCAT data supports winds of 45 knots (50 mph), alongside a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg) at the moment. While Dolores is currently moving generally westward, it should turn more NW as the STR over the United States grabs hold, and eventually move around the STR's western edge. Moreover, this motion could be quite critical in how strong the storm gets, as the NHC notes. Lots of moisture and near 30C SST's should be enough for Dolores to gradually intensify in the face of shear, which is forecasted to be less of an influence in a few days time. While the NHC currently forecasts a peak of 95 knots (110 mph), I would love to see Dolores become a third major. Also, a TS watch is up for the Mexican coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, and heavy surf, as well as a few inches of torrential rain, is expected in the area. Hopefully, this does not become a major issue. AndrewTalk To Me 23:21, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :::July is usually a very buy month for the EPAC, especially the early to mid-part of it, when the EPAc reaches its first peak and ramps up quite similar to how the ATL does it late August. It appears that the GFS/GFDL are too bullish with the intensity forecast. GFS in fact brings it to Category 5 status and while GFDL isn't too much bullish due to its easterly track long-term, both models show way too much depending overnight (like 30 mbar's of deepening!). They likely overdoing the effects of a GOT gap event. HWRF/ECMWF looks more reasonable. Also worth noting the peak intensity shown by the NHC may be too late shown, as most of the guidance brings it over cooler waters in a tad over 72 hours, though could be a bit later if it goes more SW than forecast. So far, the storm is a little more S than expected, but N of some GFS runs and the GFDL. Shear is likely to drop off in 36 hours, but it could increase in the short term (you can tell it's stronger than yestersday, even if it is slowly becoming more organized). Just to keep it safe, I wouldn't expect too much over the next 36 hours, maybe no deepening at all. Good news is it's on to a decent start building an core, and it will need to build one within 48 hours, since it's gonna have around 36-48 hours of favorable conditions max if the track holds true. A lot more can happen in that time than people think, so therefore, I still think this is a good bet to peak as a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane, but if the storm does not build a core fast enough, it could be weaker. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 23:53, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :: Yeah, July is almost like the EPac's August. We usually see an average of 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane during the month in the EPac, though this year already featured 3 in the CPac, a record for the month, let alone the record period for so early in the season. Assuming we get Enrique from 6-E, we're looking at 5 storms in the month, which is two storms short of tying 1985's all-time record of 7. With 18 more days left in the month, this season could easily match or beat that record, though 1985 is like the 2005 Atlantic season in the aspect that it holds almost every record for the earliest-numbered storm of the season, with the exception of the first few and last few (since it wasn't as active as '92). Still, 1985 had a 5-storm June, which is the all-time record for the month, just like July of that year. At this time in 1985, the season was up to Guillermo, would get Hilda, Ignacio, and Jimena 9 days later, and would get through Kevin and Linda before the month was over. 'Ryan1000' 00:55, July 13, 2015 (UTC) ::::Looks for now like one of these storms that intensify even though shear is coming. At least 15 knot of shear, maybe 30-35 knts of shear though will become an issue soon. In the meantime, hopefully, this will try to build an inner core and hopefully will bomb out later on. While it's looking very very nice, and if the shear is stronger than expected, rapid weakening is a possibility. As for EPAC July, my average in my dataset for July I have (so many ways to measure this kind of stuff) 3.7 named storms per July, with ~2 hurricanes and 1-2 majors. FYI, ECMWF does show two more systems in a little over a week. I think we could end up with 8 this month. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:27, July 13, 2015 (UTC) :: Well of course I round it up, but 3 to 4 is fine as well. The latest forecast on Dolores takes it to a major hurricane now, and possibly a strong one. 'Ryan1000' 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC) :: Getting close to hurricane strength. Forecasts take it to a major hurricane. leeboy100My Talk! 18:07, July 13, 2015 (UTC) ::::ATCF has it a hurricane. An eye is trying to form on VIS, and it may be nearing 70 knots, even though the storm has become a little less organized. Honestly, this looks much better than I thought it would today and that is the fact the shear was lower than it is suppose to be today has allowed for continued deepening, though shear right now is preventing ti from bombing out. The next step form here on out is for it to build a good inner core with a closed eyewall. I will say that this is poised to become a beautiful hurricane, since it currently has very cold cloud tops and a very very good moisture envelope and ok but not great outflow channels. Wind shear could reach near 0 knots in a few days, which screams for intensification. I'd be incline to think it would EI in that situation, but SST's are only going to be near 27C and since it is somewhat close to the EPAC SST gradient (Which is more north and not as prominent and sharp as normal due to the record SST's and +PDO), it'd be hard for thick convection to persist, hence I will not forecast Cat 5 (and if it wants to do so, probs needs to do so over 27-28C SST's, but with 0 knots of shear, who knows?), but Cat 3/4 looks like a really good bet and Cat 2 is child's play for it. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:48, July 13, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Dolores Dolores is a category 1 storm now, but the NHC peak forecast still only calls for cat 3. We'll see how things turn out. 'Ryan1000' 02:57, July 14, 2015 (UTC) Major Hurricane Dolores Bada BOOM, Category 4. 115 kt/944 mbar. Forecast peak upped to 130 kts; at this point, even if Dolores doesn't become a Category 5, it's pretty much bound to surpass Andres as the strongest storm of the season thus far. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:54, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :Actually, scratch that, Dolores is leveling off per ATCF. We'll see. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:59, July 15, 2015 (UTC) ::It hit a dry slot and leveled off briefly. Has 24 hours left so we'll see what happens. This storm has however, exceeded all my expectations. Barring more dry air or an ERC, high-end Cat 4 is still doable. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:39, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :::I think Dolores has done a really nice job in terms of its strength, but unfortunately, it's only expected to retain major status until the end of Thursday, and then level off in intensity from here on out. I only expect a peak of 145 mph at most (maybe... MAYBE with a slight shot at high end C4, but you'd never know until you find out tomorrow or so). But yeah... I agree that dry air may just stop this system, so it may not even reach high-end C4 status. -_- There's still an outside chance though... --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:48, July 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolores (2nd time) Dolores was not able to exceed low C4 status, but it briefly became annular-like yesterday. However, being over SST's of 26C, and losing its convection, the storm has significantly weakened to 60 knots (70 mph) with a pressure of 989 mbar (hPa; 29.21 inHg). Dolores is forecast to move WNW around the edge of the STR over Mexico before becoming stationary within a few days. Also, since the storm is moving over cooler waters and increasing shear, it should see its demise within the end of the NHC forecast period, as many models expect. However, surf currently affecting SW Mexico may reach SoCal this weekend, causing potentially dangerous conditions. Stay safe, Steve! :) On a side note, Dolores's attaining of C4 intensity a couple days ago marks the first time in EPAC history three of the first four storms forming east of 140W attained that strength, according to Jeff Masters. Also, for only the third time since 1971, the first four storms in an EPAC season forming east of 140W all became hurricanes. Quite an impressive start, no? AndrewTalk To Me 15:18, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :Dolores continues its plummet to rock bottom. Most of its convection is now displaced to the west, and winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph) per the NHC, with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.42 inHg). As Dolores nears the western edge of the STR, its worsening environment will only prompt more weakening, and based off the NHC's words, the storm might degenerate quicker than expected. Although it is forecast to become stationary offshore of California in a few days, Dolores is also predicted to send moisture with a monsoonal trough into Arizona and SoCal, which could cause abnormal rain and flood conditions. However, any impacts should be as bad as, say, Norbert from last year. AndrewTalk To Me 01:10, July 18, 2015 (UTC) ::I guess this is why we're now getting thunderstorm conditions around our area. I'll stay safe, these T-storms aren't likely to be that severe anyway. We desperately need this rainfall because of our drought! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:00, July 18, 2015 (UTC) 06E.ENRIQUE Aoi:ECMWF storm #4 ECMWF brings an Iselle-esque system near 140W in 10 days. 0/20. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC) 97E.INVEST 80/90. Could form in 12-18 hours, though the GFS and ECMWF both have it getting torn apart by the Great Hawaiian Shear in 4 days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:59, July 10, 2015 (UTC) : If anything, this invest should become "Enrique" and peak only as a tropical storm. A hurricane is being slightly optimistic at this point. The invest is now 90/90, and I would be shocked if it's not a depression by the afternoon (PDT time). --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:46, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six-E Upped. Looking good. Forecast peak is 50 knots, which may be too bullish, but a weak long-lied TS is possible since conditions look ok for 5 days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:00, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :Yep, Six-E really seems to be coming together in the southern quadrant. Winds are currently 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) based on an ASCAT pass, but Dvorak estimates would prompt a tropical storm upgrade. With warm waters and low shear, I see no reason why that peak can't be reached, although dry air in the depression's proximity might inhibit even steady intensification. Motionwise, Six-E should continue pacing generally NW for the next several days, and there may be potential interaction with Dolores near the end of the NHC forecast period, as stated in their discussion. On a more trivial note, if Six-E can become a tropical storm before July 14 (if it is not ''actually one right now), it might be a record for the EPAC in general. Despite 1985's wildfire July, Storm #8, Hilda, did not arrive until July 19. Even 1992, which had two pre-April TCs, did not see its eighth storm, Frank, arrive until the date I stated above. It would be amazing if 2015 could seize another record. AndrewTalk To Me 23:31, July 12, 2015 (UTC) :: Yeah but 1985 got Ignacio and Jimena shortly after Hilda, and would also get Kevin and Linda before July was over. Still, it would be nice to see this season match or beat 1985's all-time July record. Ryan1000 00:55, July 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Enrique And now it's named. Ryan1000 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC) :It seems Enrique has been forgotten here. Well, it was able to crack 45 knots (50 mph) despite the environment it was in, but is now moving over 25C SST's and is becoming disorganized. Winds have been lowered to 40 knots (45 mph) by the NHC based on Dvorak estimates, with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Enrique should begin a meandering motion as its STR influences weaken, and should degenerating within a couple of days based on its environment. Iglesias may have stolen Frank of his record I acknowledged above, but he is done bailando. ;) AndrewTalk To Me 15:40, July 15, 2015 (UTC) ::I saw what you did there... Anyways, Enrique Iglesias has now finally found unfavorable conditions in its path, giving him a heart attack. This storm may be a little bit of a dirty dancer but he surely isn't that much of a hero, unlike Dolores. Finally, Enrique is just meandering around the EPac as a weak TS because he likes it, and likes how it feels. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:42, July 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Enrique ...and its gone. the killer combo of shear+dry air stopped Enrique to start bailando. but maybe a drone dissipated it the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 04:05, July 17, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Enrique (2nd time) ...or is it? Enrique, somewhat like Douglas from last year, is maintaining some convection bursts in its northern quadrant. As a result, winds are at 35 knots (40 mph) again with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). However, Enrique may not last much longer, as it is already over 25C SST's, and the NHC forecasts degeneration within 24 hours. As the remains begin to execute a counterclockwise loop, it should be noted that some models keep Enrique alive for at least five more days. Maybe it will try to repeat 1991 (likely too extreme)? AndrewTalk To Me 15:07, July 17, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Enrique (2nd time) My idea above was indeed too far-fetched. Enrique is basically devoid now of any deep convection, and is down to just some random shower bands. ASCAT data supports weakening to 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) (NHC). As the depression continues erratically in a loop, it should become post-tropical within a day unless convection comes back, although some guidance suggests Enrique will last several more days from there. Whatever the case, impacts will effectively be zero from this storm. AndrewTalk To Me 01:02, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Enrique Now it died, even though remnants might still be lingering. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:16, July 18, 2015 (UTC) AOI: South of Hawaii AOI: South of Hawaii East of ex-Iune, we have a rather disorganized surface low. Due to enviornmental conditions, significant intensification is quite unlikely from this AOI. However, the CPHC assesses its chances of formation to be 10% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 15:45, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :This AOI basically looks like a string of pulled out clouds on the CPHC TWO. I highly doubt it will even come close to developing. Chances of formation are now (near) 0% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 00:56, July 18, 2015 (UTC) AOI.South of Mexico AOI:South of Mexico 0% for two days, but 40% for 5 as it moves northwest and it follows in the wake of Dolores. Felicia, anyone? Ryan1000 20:33, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :0/50. Could become a weak Cat 1 at most. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:50, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :This AOI has not been invested yet, but looking at the fairly warm SST's and diminishing shear in its projected NHC path, I would not rule out the possibility of another tropical storm (though I'm not sure ''how strong it will get). Also, chances of formation are now 60% for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 00:54, July 18, 2015 (UTC) 99E.INVEST 20/80. Both the ECMWF and GFS show more deepening than they did yesterday, with the ECMWF showing a strong Cat 1 and the GFS has a Cat 2. The statical models have run on this now, and the LGEM has this as a major in 4 days while the SHIPS has a Cat 2. As for track, it will move slowly W to WNW over the next week or so. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :30/80. I can see this possibly being a major hurricane "Felicia" in a few days from now. But, it will not surprise me if it doesn't even ''get to major status, because of the models you mentioned. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:19, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:ECMWF storm #4 Aoi:ECMWF storm #4 ECMWF agrees on another hurricane forming around day 6, and peaking around day 10. GFS has the same thing, but a later and slightly stronger peak. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:GFS storm #1 Aoi:GFS storm #1 Probs ex-93L. GFS makes this a monster at the 6z run on day 12 and the ECMWF hints at it at the end of its 10 day run. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:GFS storm #2 Aoi:GFS storm #2 GFS has this becoming a TS by day 13. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado... ;EPAC *Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise. *Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager. *Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement. ;CPAC *Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry) *Halola: Currently active *Iune: Currently active --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC) The Steve has spoken: EPac: *Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise. *Blanca: 2% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it ''did cause some slight impact here and there. *Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country. *Dolores: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated. CPac: *Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin. *Halola: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated. *Iune: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Welp, here I go: ---- Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh. Blanca: 3% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet... Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, it killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. ---- CPac Names Don't really see any retirements yet, until Hawaii's smallest island disappears from storm surge. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 16:03, July 18, 2015 (UTC)